Counterpoint counted 57 million PCs shipped worldwide in Q3 2026, down 21% from a year earlier, as memory and component costs raised laptop prices. It forecasts a 27% drop in Q4. Apple and Asus lost the least ground.
Fewer people bought new PCs last quarter because the parts inside them got expensive. Counterpoint Research counted 57 million PCs shipped worldwide in Q3 2026, down 21% from a year earlier and 13.8% from Q2. The firm blames higher memory and component costs that pushed system prices up. The Verge notes that IDC and Omdia reported similar declines earlier this month.
The year-ago quarter was also unusually strong. Buyers rushed to replace PCs before Windows 10 support ended, and vendors stocked up ahead of tariffs. That high base makes this year’s drop look steeper.
Who held up
Counterpoint’s preliminary numbers for the top five vendors:
| Vendor | Q3 2026 shipments | Change vs Q3 2025 | Market share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lenovo | 15.0 million | Down 23% | 26.3% |
| HP | 10.3 million | Down 31% | 18.1% |
| Dell | 7.6 million | Down 25% | 13.3% |
| Apple | 5.6 million | Down 11% | 9.8% |
| Asus | 5.2 million | Down 7% | 9.2% |
Apple and Asus fell the least, and both gained share. Counterpoint credits the $599 MacBook Neo, which Apple launched in March, with cushioning Apple’s decline. HP had the steepest drop of the top six.
Business buying held up better than consumer buying. Companies kept replacing aging fleets and moving to newer versions of Windows. That wasn’t enough to offset weak consumer demand.
What comes next
Counterpoint expects shipments to fall 27% year over year in Q4 2026. It forecasts 2027 to come in roughly flat with 2026, which would mean the market settles at the lower level rather than bouncing back.
The firm also warns about the mix. As vendors favor configurations that absorb higher part costs, Counterpoint says buyers will see fewer affordable options. That’s a forecast. Today’s shipment numbers are measured data.
What it means if you buy laptops for a team
Don’t wait for prices to drop. Counterpoint’s outlook has no recovery in it before the end of 2027. If you have laptops due for replacement in the next two quarters, get quotes now and compare them with what you paid last year.
Memory is the line item to watch. The same component costs behind this drop are why upgrade prices for RAM and storage feel steep. On Apple silicon you can’t add memory later, so the configuration you buy is the one you keep. If on-device AI tools are in your plans, check their requirements first. Perplexity, for example, recommends 36GB for its local agent (our report).
The cheap Mac is now a fleet option. At $599, the MacBook Neo is the reason Apple beat the market this quarter. For teams that mostly live in a browser, video calls and docs, it’s worth pricing against a mid-range Windows laptop.
New MacBook Pros are days away. Apple’s October 28 launch is expected to bring new Pro models. If your next purchase is a Pro, wait the week and see the prices first. Microsoft’s MacBook trade-in offer on the Surface Laptop Ultra runs through November 23 if you’re weighing a switch.