Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva beat Flávio Bolsonaro in Brazil's October 25 runoff, 51.75% to 48.25% with 99.8% counted. For US companies, his win keeps a 25% US tariff fight, tougher platform rules, an AI bill and Pix on the table. Here is what changed, what didn't, and the dates to watch.
Update, October 26: Lula won. With 99.8% of polling stations counted, he has 51.75% of valid votes to Flávio Bolsonaro’s 48.25%, per TSE figures compiled by The Rio Times, and France 24 reports he has won. This piece first ran while Lula led the count. The analysis below is unchanged.
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva won Brazil’s presidential runoff, held on October 25. Lula’s opponent, Senator Flávio Bolsonaro of the Liberal Party, led the first round on October 4 with 47.03% of valid votes to Lula’s 45.16%, according to the electoral court (TSE). It is Lula’s fourth presidential election victory, and the new term starts in January.
Brazil is the largest economy in Latin America and a market where US tech companies sell, build and hire. Here is what a Lula win means for them, split into what is already fact and what is our analysis.
The tariff fight with Washington stays open
The facts. The US has had a 25% tariff on most imports from Brazil since July 22, 2026. USTR imposed it on July 15 after a Section 301 investigation, per Husch Blackwell’s summary of the notice. Goods already under Section 232 tariffs are exempt, including semiconductors, along with civil aircraft and parts and certain pharmaceuticals. One of USTR’s findings covered digital trade: court orders telling X, Meta and Google to remove political content, and policies alleged to favor Brazil’s Pix over US payment companies.
The earlier 40% tariff on Brazil is gone. The Supreme Court ruled on February 20, 2026 that IEEPA does not authorize tariffs, and importers can claim refunds through CBP, per this summary of the ruling and refund process.
Lula called the Section 301 tariffs unjust, and his government rejected the findings, Covington reported. He met President Trump at the White House in May. In July, Secretary of State Marco Rubio said the US still had “substantial differences” with Brazil, Al Jazeera reported.
Our analysis. A Lula win removes the scenario where a friendlier Brasília trades concessions for quick tariff relief. If you import hardware, components or accessories made in Brazil, plan as if the 25% duty stays into 2027. Check your products against the HTS list under heading 9903.05.01. If you paid the old 40% IEEPA duty, file for the refund now. The process has deadlines.
Platform rules get tougher, and they come from the courts first
The facts. Brazil’s Supreme Court (STF) ruled in June 2025 that Article 19 of the Marco Civil da Internet is partly unconstitutional. That article had shielded platforms from liability for user posts unless they ignored a court order. The court finalized the new rules in June 2026 and gave platforms 60 days to comply, according to Mattos Filho. Platforms can now be liable for unlawful content after a notice, and for “systemic failure” when harmful content goes viral, per the Global Network Initiative. Email, video calls and private messaging keep the old court-order rule.
Brazil’s child online safety law, the ECA Digital (Law 15.211/2025), has applied since March 17, 2026. The data protection authority (ANPD) supervises app stores and operating systems first, Mayer Brown wrote.
Two bills are still in Congress. The AI bill (PL 2338/2023) passed the Senate in December 2024 and waits in the Chamber of Deputies, with a vote expected after the election, per Tech Policy Press. A digital markets bill, sent in September 2025, would let the competition regulator CADE set transparency, interoperability and non-discrimination duties for the biggest platforms. Lula’s platform promises “democratic regulation of digital platforms and AI,” Tech Policy Press reported.
Our analysis. Expect both bills to move with a re-elected government behind them. The AI bill is the one to read if you sell AI tools in Brazil: high-risk systems and copyright for training data are the open fights. For a US SaaS company with Brazilian users, the practical work is the same as for the EU: a takedown process with response times, age checks where minors may sign up, and a local legal contact.
Pix keeps growing, and stays a trade issue
The facts. Pix is the instant payment system run by Brazil’s central bank. More than 170 million people have used it, and it handled more than 7 billion transactions in May 2026 alone, per central bank figures reported here. USTR named policies favoring Pix over US payment providers as an unfair practice in the Section 301 case.
Our analysis. Lula’s government rejected the Section 301 findings, Pix included. Do not expect it to slow Pix down for US card networks or wallets. If you sell software or services to Brazilian customers, offering Pix at checkout is the default expectation there.
Data centers get a tax break with conditions
The facts. Lula signed the ReData law on September 15, 2026. It suspends federal taxes on IT equipment bought for data centers for five years. In return, operators must run on renewable or low-emission power, keep water use under 0.05 liters per kWh, offer 10% of capacity to the Brazilian market and reinvest 2% of product value in Brazil, per W.Media and law-firm summaries. Lula’s platform also calls for “sovereign computing infrastructure operated by Brazilian institutions.”
Our analysis. For US cloud providers, ReData is a reason to build in Brazil. The sovereignty language means government contracts may favor local operators. If your customers in Brazil ask where their data lives, a São Paulo cloud region becomes an easier answer each year.
Nearshore hiring: the time zone doesn’t vote
Our analysis. Brazil has not used daylight saving time since 2019. Brasília time is two hours ahead of US Eastern in winter and one hour ahead in summer. The election does not change that overlap, and it does not change the employment and contractor rules US companies use to hire there. The number to watch is the exchange rate. A big move in the real after the result changes what a Brazilian contractor costs in dollars, in either direction. Price new contracts after markets settle.
Dates to watch
- January 2027: Lula’s new term begins.
- By year-end: a Chamber of Deputies vote on the AI bill, if it stays on schedule.
- Any time: a change to the Section 301 tariff. USTR can modify it at any point, and a new negotiation would be the first sign.
This piece is analysis based on the sources linked above. We will update it as the new government names its ministers and sets its first tech priorities.